Anabasis
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210Course · Professional

Macroeconomics for Investors

The economy the portfolio inhabits.

The Course

This course closes the Program with the macro layer that portfolios live inside. The Scholar learns to read cycles, monetary policy, and fiscal signals well enough to position a portfolio without pretending to forecast.

You will finish with a ten-page Written Market Outlook, defended in oral panel.

Outcomes
  • 01

    Interpret the business cycle in real time.

  • 02

    Read a Fed statement and locate the shift.

  • 03

    Position a portfolio for a stated macro thesis.

Prerequisites
  • — 110 — Economic Fundamentals.
  • — 208 — Portfolio Management.
Pacing

2 weeks · ~6 hours plus the Capstone.

  • IModule · ~2 hours.

    The cycle

    Expansion, peak, contraction, trough — and their signatures.

    The cycle has a signature. Reading it in real time is a working skill.

    What You Will Be Able To Do
    • — Identify the current phase from data.
    • — State the assets that tend to lead and lag.
    • — Distinguish signal from noise.
    Why here

    Portfolio positioning is downstream of an honest cycle read.

    1. 01The four phases and their asset returnsVisuals8m
    2. 02Recession signalsArticle12m
  • IIModule · ~2 hours.

    Monetary policy

    The Fed as a portfolio input.

    The Fed shapes the returns environment more than any other single actor.

    What You Will Be Able To Do
    • — Read an FOMC statement diff.
    • — Map rate cycles to asset returns.
    • — State a defensible view on the current stance.
    Why here

    The single most consequential macro variable for households.

    1. 01Rate cycles and asset returnsArticle12m
    2. 02Reading an FOMC statementInteractive20m
  • IIIModule · ~2 hours plus the Capstone.

    Fiscal and geopolitical inputs

    The other two levers.

    The other two levers that shape long-run returns. This module completes the picture and stages the Capstone.

    What You Will Be Able To Do
    • — State the deficit-yield relationship honestly.
    • — Assess geopolitical risk without alarmism.
    • — Draft the Written Market Outlook.
    Why here

    The Outlook is the artifact by which the Program certifies you.

    1. 01Deficits and the long bondArticle12m
    2. 02Capstone: A Written Market OutlookCapstone240m
A Note from the Faculty

The Outlook is the Program's terminal work. Its value is not in prediction but in the quality of the reasoning.